Pressure Grows on John Terry and Chelsea

Chelsea were handed a surprise 4-2 home defeat at the hands of Manchester City, days after their 2-1 Champions League defeat in Italy. Not only are their odds of doing the treble increased, their chances of succeeding are slipping.

All attention before the game was on the Wayne Bridge-John Terry saga which saw Bridge refusing to shake Terry's hand pre-kickoff. While Bridge put in a solid performance, John Terry continued to stumble again today. Firstly some miscommunication with John Obi Mikel for the opening Manchester City goal. Later a completely mistimed tackle and a confrontation with Carlos Tevez. The former England captain has made big errors in each of his last 4 games now, which has seen Chelsea lose 3 of them. He's not the commanding and reliable captain centre back he use to be.

Chelsea dominated the first half and broke through on 41 minutes with Frank Lampard slotting home. Expecting Chelsea to run out comfortable winners at this point, Mikel's crazy header under no pressure at the half way line gave Carlos Tevez possession as he weaved in and out of Terry and Ricardo Carvalho before his scuffed effort rolled past and out-of-position Hilario.

The Portuguese stopper, in for the injured Petr Cech was also at fault with some bad positioning for City's second goal as Craig Bellamy raced onto a long ball down the left wing when Branislav Ivanovic was caught out of possession, and although appearing to dribble the ball too wide of goal he managed to get the right angle on the ball and fire City ahead.

Chelsea were crumbling and things were made worse 15 minutes from time when Juliano Belletti's clumsy challenge from behind on Gareth Barry saw him sent off and a penalty awarded against the Blues. Tevez powered it home and celebrated with Wayne Bridge, who the City team were clearly sticking up for and playing for in this one. As well as playing for themselves and the team obviously.

Michael Ballack's needless tackle from behind on Tevez saw him receive a second yellow ahead of Craig Bellamy adding a fourth before Frank Lampard converted a consolation penalty for the league leaders.

Fortunately for Chelsea, despite a couple of suspensions adding to the big losses of Michael Essien and Ashley Cole, they have two domestic games that they should find their form in ahead of their Champions League tie with Inter Milan. Inter Milan are evens to qualify from that tie, with a 2-1 lead from the first leg if that tempts anyone.

The Premier League title race is still in Chelsea's hands, albeit with only a 1 point lead over Manchester United and 3 over Arsenal. They have a few favourable fixtures until the end of the month where they need to take maximum points from as they will be expected. One thing for sure is this is going to be a very exciting run in and we can expect a few more twists in the tale!

Advantage Mourinho: Inter 2-1 Chelsea

Jose Mourinho's Inter Milan will take a 2-1 lead to Stamford Bridge for their Champions League second leg tie with Chelsea in 3 weeks.

Inside 3 minutes, Diego Milito was allowed to cut inside John Terry and fire into the bottom corner for a 1-0 lead. The Argentinian striker was quiet after that but his goal was invaluable.

Chelsea had a few chances afterwards, including a long range free kick from Didier Drogba that came out off the underside of the cross bar in the first half. The Blues could have been awarded a penalty on the stoke of half time when Salomon Kalou was dragged down by Walter Samuel inside the six yard box, one-on-one with Julio Cesar. It wasn't to be, but it was Kalou who stroke the ball past Cesar 5 minutes into the second half. Mourinho won't be happy with the defending that saw Branislav Ivanovic walk around the Inter 18 yard box before laying it off to Kalou, whose shot should have been saved by the Brazilian number 1.

Less than 5 minutes after Kalou had equalised, Esteban Cambiasso blasted Inter back in front from the edge of the area. Inter saw the game out after that and worse news for Chelsea saw Petr Cech go down on the hour mark with a knee injury that looked serious. Hilario replaced him but the loss of Cech will be a big blow for the remainder of their campaign if it turns out to be as serious as it first looked.

The away goal for Chelsea is big, but Inter are on top in this tie. Jose Mourinho's teams in the past have been successful at parking the bus and sitting on leads. Lucio kept Didier Drogba in check this evening. Nicolas Anelka was ineffective and Frank Lampard didn't test Julio Cesar. Opportunities looked hard to come by for Chelsea tonight as Inter defended well as a team in both open play and at set pieces. The Premier League leaders cannot afford to go all out in attack at home with the likes of Samuel Eto'o, Diego Milito, Wesley Sneijder, Goran Pandev and Mario Balotelli all capable of hurting Chelsea on the break.

Manchester United are the only English side in the Champions League who take a lead into their second leg, having won 3-2 in the San Siro against AC Milan last week. They look comfortable but cannot rest on their laurels with a defence that has shown vulnerability this season.

Arsenal are still favourites to qualify for the quarter finals despite losing 2-1 in Porto last week. Two moments of madness cost them the 2 goals and they rarely threatened the Portuguese sides goal in the away leg. Arsenal, as like Chelsea, are more comfortable on their home turf and I can understand the bookies choice to make them favourites. I won't be backing them any more though as I backed the Gunners in-play when they went a goal down in Portugal during the first leg!

Nearly a Perfect Premier League Weekend

Firstly, I wasn't overly surprised by Everton's victory over Manchester United on Saturday. They didn't wake up for the early away game kickoff against an in-form side at Goodison Park. Their chances of winning the title are very slim now; 4 points behind Chelsea who have the better run in.

Chelsea extended their lead over Manchester United with a 2-0 victory at Wolves. While I wasn't surprised by this, I wasn't brave enough to back a Chelsea side who have struggled on the road recently. Didier Drogba's brace has given them a comfortable lead at the top of the table.

My first tip on Saturday was Arsenal beating Sunderland and they did so, 2-0, cutting the gap behind Manchester United to 2 points. My other 3pm kickoff tip was West Ham to beat Hull City and they backed up their 5/6 odds with a 3-0 victory over a side who finished the game with 9 men. With the bottom 7 losing this weekend, West Ham are now 4 points above the relegation zone. Hull are just 1 point outside of the bottom 3.

In Saturday's evening game I wasn't brave enough to back Stoke to win, so I took a double chance of them to win or draw at Portsmouth. Despite trailing at half time, goals from Robert Huth and Salif Diao won my bet and earned 3 points for Stoke.

Today, Aston Villa gained 2 points on both Manchester City and Liverpool after beating Burnley 5-2 at home. This is what I regarded as the safest bet of the day ahead of the match and I was certainly a bit concerned by the slow start Aston Villa made to the match. They were 11/10 when 1-0 down and I didn't back them, partly because I had already invested heavily into them and partly because I was concerned they may had had next week's Carling Cup final on their mind. Fortunately they equalised before half time and then 4 goals in 13 minutes in the second half won my handicap bet.

Good job I chose not to watch the Manchester City-Liverpool game after reports it was a dull affair. This didn't surprise me with both sides playing not to lose when I thought Manchester City should have been going for the win here. Fernando Torres made his return to the Liverpool side though as a second half substitute. Maybe I should be kicking myself for not backing the draw here, but it's been such a good weekend of gambling I don't need to worry about that.

My final picks on this week's Premier League Betting Tips was on the Tottenham v Wigan game. It wasn't a convincing performance from Spurs on a terrible pitch at the DW Stadium, but Jermain Defoe scored for the first bet, Tottenham won for my highest bet and with a bit of fortune at the end I also won handsomely on a handicap bet. My only lost bet on the weekend was backing Defoe to score a hattrick, but it's nothing worth crying about!

Make sure you come back next Thursday for some more reliable Premier League Tips. I hope you too had a successful weekend and if not let's make it a successful weekend to finish of February.

Michael Bisping Beaten by the Axe Murderer

The 'Axe Murderer' Wanderlei Silva looked rejuvenated last night in his performance at UFC 110, defeating Michael Bisping on a unanimous decision after the fight went through all three rounds.

Both fights exchanged blows throughout a close fight. The Brit, Bisping connected a few times early on and took Silva down to the mat on a couple of occasions. But the Brazilian, having lost 5 of his last 6 bouts scored with a rally of punches at the end of the first and third round that swayed the judges scores in his favour.

The Count, coming off an impressive victory over over Denis Kang in November, was caught in a guillotine choke at the end of the second round after attempting to take Silva down. Time also saved him at the end of the final round as Silva knocked him down to the ground and was about to start a flurry of punches before the referee intervened at the bell. However, he did not do enough to win the fight in the 15 minutes as the Axe Murderer was comfortably attacking him in the final round.

Having lost to Dan Henderson in July last year, followed by this one, Michael Bisping is a long long way from a title shot that seems unlikely for him to ever get now.

On the British front, Dan Hardy will become the first ever Brit to get a title shot as he takes on Georges St Pierre for the Welterweight Championship in New Jersey on March 27th. Hardy's odds are going to be long to say the least and as supportive of the Brits as I am, I am like everybody else who doesn't give him a chance in this match! He's represented Britain well in the UFC and with Michael Bisping has helped to expand the popularity of the sport over here.

Everton Halt Manchester United 's Title Chase

Goals from Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, Dan Gosling and Jack Rodwell handed Manchester United a 3-1 defeat at Goodison Park today as the defending champions failed to overtake Chelsea in the Premier League.

Dimitar Berbatov had given Manchester United the lead after quarter of an hour. It was only a few minutes later that Bilyaletdinov capitalised on a poor clearance from Jonny Evans.

Manchester United's defence looked vulnerable without both Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. This has been a problem all season and has seen them keep only 3 clean sheets on the road this season.

Going forward, United have relied heavily on Wayne Rooney this season and it showed today. Rooney was quiet with help from an excellent performance by Sylvain Distin. They really threatened the Everton goal, wasting a number of set piece opportunities.

Already with a tough run in, Manchester United will be relying on Wolves to pick up points at home to a Chelsea side missing a number of first team regulars today. Victory for the Blues would extend their lead to 4 points at the top with just 11 games remaining. Arsenal have the opportunity to close the gap to 2 points on Manchester United if they can win at home to Sunderland, as expected. They have a favourable run in.

Defensive problems have been a part of what Manchester United are struggling with this season. They've had injury problems there all season. Edwin van der Sar has only recently return, Rio Ferdinand returned to get suspended and Nemanja Vidic is currently out injured. They were all key players in there championship winning season in 2009. Despite scoring an impressive 63 league goals in 27 games now, they rely on Wayne Rooney far too often going forward. In games like today's when he doesn't perform well, neither do they.

The league is Chelsea's to lose now. Victory today and their odds will shrink dramatically.

Who Will Finish 4th in the Premier League?

The Premier League is as exciting as ever this season. With a dozen games remaining, there are 3 teams still in the title race, 7 teams within 3 points of relegation zone or safety and a race for the illusive final Champions League spot that could come also down to the final day of the season. With that in mind, I'm going to have a look at those teams competing for 4th spot.

Liverpool

Odds: 11/8

Remaining fixtures: Manchester City(a), Blackburn Rovers(H), Wigan Athletic(a), Portsmouth(H), Manchester United(a), Sunderland(H), Birmingham City(a), Fulham(H), West Ham United(H), Burnley(a), Chelsea(H), Hull City(a)

Currently holding 4th spot, 1 goal ahead of Manchester City who are at Stoke City tonight, Liverpool will have their say in the title race as the face the top two before the season is over. The title for fourth spot isn't in their control at the moment, having played two more games than Manchester City, but they travel to Eastlands on Sunday for what will be a big match and one they cannot afford to lose. After that they should be looking for 9 points before they travel to Manchester United, the team they have beat in three straight league meetings. Since Christmas, Rafael Benitez has fixed their defence which has brought them much success. Defeat to Arsenal last week still came as little surprise, but they need to beat the lower placed clubs now if they want to qualify for next season's Champions League. Fernando Torres will be back this month and can take the pressure off Dirk Kuyt's shoulders, with few other players in the team producing goals in the Spaniard's absence.

Manchester City

Odds: 5/4

Remaining fixtures: Stoke City(a), Liverpool(H), Chelsea(a), Tottenham Hotspur(H), Sunderland(a), Fulham(a), Wigan Athletic(H), Burnley(a), Birmingham City(H), Manchester United(H), Arsenal(a), Aston Villa(H), West Ham United(a)

The toughest remaining schedule of these four teams doesn't bare well for Manchester City who have a cup replay at Stoke City to come later this month also. Their run of 7 straight league draws towards the end of 2009 under Mark Hughes included a lot of sides they should have beat. Looking at these fixtures, it's hard to see where they will string a few consecutive victories in a row together. One thing they do well is increase their performances against the big sides. They have home victories over Arsenal and Chelsea in the league this season, and Manchester United in the Carling Cup. They need to beat Liverpool this coming weekend as well as home games with Manchester United and Aston Villa as the season draws to a close. The 3 league games after tonight will have a big say in where Manchester City finish, and whether they come out of those on top or bottom, they need to string victories together in the games after that. There are a few good set piece sides in there which could cause problems for Manchester City, as well as a few tough away fixtures. But home games with the 3 teams they're competing with for fourth spot will be key.

Tottenham Hotspur

Odds: 6/1

Remaining fixtures: Wigan Athletic(a), Everton(H), Manchester City(a), Blackburn Rovers(H), Stoke City(a), Portsmouth(H), Sunderland(a), Arsenal(H), Chelsea(H), Manchester United(a), Bolton Wanderers(H), Burnley(a)

Arguably the toughest of the remaining schedules, Tottenham face all 3 title contenders, 1 fellow competing Champions League side and 5 teams in and around the relegation zone, fighting for their survival. As with Liverpool, a trip to Manchester City in the coming weeks will have a big say in the race for fourth spot. Ideally, Tottenham need to be in fourth place before they play Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in consecutive games. Should they fail to be, they can be ruled out of Champions League football next season. Their recent run of form, or lack of in the Premier League has cost them already in my view. They still have the FA Cup to compete in, but a Champions League spot looks very unlikely for Harry Redknapp's side.

Aston Villa

Odds: 9/2

Remaining fixtures: Burnley(H), Sunderland(H), Stoke City(a), Wigan Athletic(a), Wolverhampton Wanderers(H), Chelsea(a), Bolton Wanderers(a), Everton(H), Portsmouth(a), Birmingham City(H), Manchester City(a), Blackburn Rovers(H)

Currently 2 points behind Liverpool, Aston Villa have a decent remaining schedule to put them in a strong position to compete for a top 4 finish this season. Hopefully for them an FA Cup replay and Carling Cup final won't have a negative impact on their league form. They need 6 points from their next two home games against teams in the bottom half struggling for form. Then come two away fixtures they ought to be taking 4 points from. That will likely see them in 4th spot should they do the business. They have two rivalries, fortunately at home, and trips to Chelsea and Manchester City to come. With Tottenham likely to drop off, Manchester City with a tough fixture list and Liverpool capable of shooting themselves in the foot, Aston Villa are a good shout to snatch that final Champions League spot they have been looking at for the past two seasons.

Who do you think will take the final Champions League position this season?

Live Betting Key to Success in the FA Cup

The FA Cup provided bags of entertainment and some unpredictability this weekend. I expect the bookmakers to have had some success with the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa being held today. Despite having Spurs and Villa in a treble today, it's been a very profitable day and weekend for me.

In the first game today, Bolton really took it to Tottenham who were hanging on for a while until the home side finally broke through with Kevin Davies tapping in after a lovely move. Tottenham did get back into it shortly after and it was before half time that I took them to win or draw at evens.

A game of two halves came true in this one. After being outplayed in the first half, Tottenham took control in the second. Jermain Defoe equalised on the our and that was after Spurs had twice hit the bar. Tom Huddlestone had a penalty saved later as Spurs failed once again to score from the spot. A chance for Bolton to win it late on as I was expecting never came as Spurs finished the game on top. These two will replay now, but thanks to live betting strategies, I came away with a tidy sum today.


That was only the start of it. And the less nervous one of the two. I was expecting Aston Villa to win today. Even with Crystal Palace's notable talent and good form. So after Crystal Palace took the lead, and with the usually reliable bet365 having problems, I found the best place to go to for some good odds were at Will Hill. Although Aston Villa were substantially odds on, as I couldn't see them losing this game I took the bet of Aston Villa to win +1 on the Asian handicap at 8/11.


It was a close match and the Crystal Palace players certainly put themselves about. I felt confident in my bet paying off when James Collins nodded home an equaliser for the visitors. And the home side rarely threatened Brad Friedel's goal after that. That was until Darren Ambrose struck a 36 yard free kick that flew into the corner of the net. I was taken away by it and it left Villa with just 20 minutes to find an equaliser.

Fortunately, through a controversial corner that brought out the best of Neil Warnock in his post-match interview, Stiliyan Petrov headed home to setup a replay. And more importantly, win my bet.

I've often said to be careful in the past on FA Cup games because they do throw us some strange results. There have been no major upsets this weekend, but thanks to in play betting and a but of fortunate (or good judgement ;) ), I can afford that trip to Montreal in May that I have been considering recently, solely on this weekend's results. I hope this weekend's games brought you success also. If not, I will have more tips and advice for you as always in the near future.

In-Play FA Cup Betting Provides Winners

The unpredictability of the FA Cup continued yesterday. This time there were no upsets before Valentines Day.

Firstly, I was embarrassed on my Southampton bet as Portsmouth thrashed them 4-1 (the last 2 goals were on the counter attack when Southampton pushed up field). But as with any cup game you keep your stakes low.

Except for West Brom. But for live betting I would have been down yesterday. Live betting and a late West Brom equaliser. I was fortunate in that sense yesterday, but I took full advantage of in-play betting after West Brom conceded a goal inside 10 seconds, backing them to win or draw narrowly above evens and matching the same stake I had on them to win pre kickoff. I ended up making a small profit from that game. It would have been a big loss if Reading had won, but were they ever going to win? ;) And if West Brom had taken the man advantage they had for a while and won the game, I would have been a very rich boy.


My biggest winner actually came in the Championship yesterday with Coventry beating Queens Park Rangers. The home side were in form and QPR have been playing awful under Mick Harford. I don't rate him as a manager. A good coach, but not a manager. A tough guy in his day, but not a manager. Ladbrokes giving me evens was a mistake on their behalf.


Today I am leaning on Tottenham and Aston Villa. While Tottenham have yet to win at the Reebok Stadium, you would like to think they will break their duck eventually. Tottenham are one of the favourites for this competition now and Harry Redknapp will be looking to get his hands on the cup once again. Aston Villa meanwhile are in the same situation and are playing well. They are both live on TV so will be ones for in-play betting. A cheeky treble with Fulham before they kickoff, but the serious betting will be in play.

Spotting the FA Cup Upsets

There's a few nice FA Cup matchups today and a few potential upsets on the line.

Southampton host Portsmouth to kickoff the 5th round today. A big rivalry on the south coast, the Saints are a team in form and already booked their place at Wembley for the St Johnstone's Paint Trophy. They have overcome a 10 point deduction and are pushing for the League One playoffs, playing very well under Alan Pardew. They have a goalscorer up front in Richie Lambert who you can expect to cause the Portsmouth defence a lot of problems today.

Pompey have had all their problems off the field this season and it's affected them on the pitch. Manager Avram Grant is frustrated by the situation, the players heads have gone down and it's just a matter of time before relegation. There's not enough players giving their all for their team because a lot of them as they look to jump ship. Southampton are more hungry and I expect them to want this more than Portsmouth. An attacking formation and if they go at Portsmouth from the start, we could have a third tier club in the quarter finals of the FA Cup this season. It's live on TV for in-play betting, but pre-match odds of 2/1 are worth taking.

Derby host Birmingham in a Midlands derby. The Rams have found their form recently, especially at home, beating Nottingham Forest and Newcastle in their last two games at Pride Park. While Derby were beating the then-Championship leaders 3-0 midweek, Birmingham went down 2-0 at struggling West Ham. The Blues seem to have hit their peak, but with their Premier League status assured manager Alex McLeish can focus on the cup. There's no reason why he won't start with a strong lineup and with a good recent history against Derby they will feel they can get back to winning ways today. My heart's saying Derby today, my head's saying Birmingham. My money is staying in my pocket for this one.

Instead I'm looking at West Brom to win at Reading. West Brom have found their form recently and even beat Scunthorpe 2-0 midweek despite putting in a poor performance. A sign of a good team. Yes, Reading have had a good cup run this weekend but I'm expecting the Baggies to come through in this tie.

The evening game sees Manchester City host Stoke City, also live on TV. This is before venues are reversed and they meet in the Premier League midweek. As for today, expect City to win against a well-disciplined Stoke side provided they put the effort in. As second favourites for the Cup and success expected with the money put into the club, they should fancy their chances this year.

Chelsea are my pick for the cup this year. It's easy to say after both Manchester United and Arsenal have been eliminated. But they are last year's defending champions, a stronger and more settled side than any other in the competition. A trip to the Eastlands in the quarter finals is the only troublesome matchup I can see for them from now on. Take Chelsea to win the FA Cup now while they're still odds-against.

Arsenal Bet Comes in as They Close in on the Leaders

Abou Diaby scored the only goal of the game as Arsenal closed the gap on Chelsea and Manchester United this evening.

As I posted in my blog earlier this evening, Arsenal were the best bet tonight, as I backed them at evens to win and at 5/2 to win to nil. Both bets came in as little else did this evening. But I ended up with another profit so I won't complain.

Manchester United done well to take a point from Villa Park this evening, having firstly gone behind to a Carlos Cuellar goal. A James Collins own goal tied the game up shortly after before Nani was sent off with a straight red card for a two footed tackle after half hour. A 1-1 draw turned out to be a good result as Chelsea lost 2-1 at Everton, leaving Manchester United 1 point behind the leaders.

Florent Malouda had given Chelsea the lead inside 20 minutes and my lay bet wasn't looking too good. But Louis Saha equalised from a corner, quarter of an hour later before having a penalty saved by Petr Cech on half time. It was Saha who scored the winner 15 minutes from time as Everton moved back up to 9th in the table.

Arsenal's 1-0 victory over Liverpool sees them close the gap to 6 points behind Chelsea with a dozen games remaining. With all the big guns out of the way now, their fans may fancy their chances for the title.

My biggest loser was on Tottenham this evening. That's two 1-0 defeats to Wolves this season, both I never saw coming against strong Tottenham line ups.

Manchester City's 2-0 victory over Bolton last night moved them into 5th position where they stay tonight. They are level on points with 4th place Liverpool with 2 games in hand. They travel to Stoke next week after hosting them in the FA Cup at the weekend.

In the other Premier League fixtures that I overlooked this evening, Blackburn beat Hull City 1-0 and West Ham beat Birmingham City 2-0.

What Do Tonight's Odds Tell Us?

At the beginning of the week, Arsenal could be found at evens and above from nearly all of your top online bookmakers. Now, less than 3 hours before kickoff and some bookmakers aren't even giving you evens.

Since Monday there hasn't been any negative Liverpool team news, and now fitness boosts for Arsenal. So the shortening of Arsenal's odds has come from a large number of punters backing Arsenal. Despite their bad form, I am one of those jumping on the bandwagon for tonight's game.

Morale may be low at Arsenal, and they may have been held here 1-1 by Liverpool in the past two seasons, but they're a better side than Liverpool this season. Arsenal's two defeats in their past two games have come against the top two teams in the league. Hopefully they will have learnt something about being left exposed on the counter attack ahead of tonight's game too.

Andrey Arshavin hasn't been his influential self in their last two games, but he has a fantastic record against Liverpool (mainly based on the 4 goals he struck at Anfield last season). He is one to watch in this game, as will Cesc Fabregas, whom also went quiet in Arsenal's last two games. And that is part of the reason for their defeats. If/when these two get back to their usual ways tonight, Liverpool are going to have more than their fair share of work. Cesc Fabregas will likely match up in the centre of midfield against Steven Gerrard, Javier Mascherano and Lucas. I don't doubt his ability to take it passed either one of those nor pass his way through the Liverpool team. Expect Fabregas to shine if Gerrard pushes too far forward. Arshavin meanwhile has looked lost at sea playing as a lone striker. Arsene Wenger should think twice about doing the same tonight. Instead I can see him dropping back or to the right hand side of midfield and Nicklas Bendtner taking the lone role up front. A position he is more suited for.

Between Arshavin, Fabregas, Bendtner, Samir Nasri and whoever else plays for Arsenal, they should be able to break down this Liverpool defence, regardless of their 6 clean sheets in 7 games. Arsenal have beat Liverpool 2-1 twice this season.

Apart from Steven Gerrard's long range efforts, Liverpool's best opportunities should fall from set pieces. Manuel Almunia is one of the most unconvincing keepers at dealing with them in the Premier League. And the small group of players with a lack of physicality doesn't help either. Add that to the lack of a player at the far post on Sunday, allowed Didier Drogba to score from close range following John Terry's flick on.

Liverpool don't have much quality going forward. Steven Gerrard has only 1 goal in his last 11 Premier League games. David N'Gog isn't doing much better (1 in 10), and lacking confidence and self belief seemingly. As well as talent. Dirk Kuyt is a man in form (4 in his last 4), but the Arsenal centre back partnership of William Gallas and Thomas Vermaelen, protected by Alex Song should keep him off the scoresheet tonight.

Arsenal are evens to win with Skybet tonight. If you're feeling more confident, they're 5/2 to win to nil.

If Arsenal can win, they will be considered title contenders again should Chelsea and Manchester United fail to win their tough away fixtures this evening. Manchester United travel to Aston Villa, a side they use to dominate. That mastery is beginning to attenuate. They were held here 0-0 last season and were beat 1-0 at Old Trafford earlier this season. It took a stoppage time winner from Federico Macheda to snatch all 3 points from Aston Villa last season. Manchester United's odds have taken a small drop since Monday where they could be found at evens. With Wayne Rooney's form, can they keep in touching distance of Chelsea by beating Villa tonight? They are 5/6 to do so.

Chelsea themselves are at a morale-beaten Everton. Beaten by their most-hated rivals Liverpool on Saturday, with an extra man for most of the game. Everton can't be feeling too confident ahead of this match against the high-flying Premier League leaders. Chelsea's odds have shortened to 8/11 ahead of kickoff. But can they beat the same Everton side who held them at Stamford Bridge back in December?

Another bet I am going with this evening, is Tottenham to win at Wolves. They have something to prove following their home defeat by the midlands side back in December and I can see Harry Redknapp getting the best out of his team in this match. And the best from them would prevent Wolves from picking anything up from this match. Tottenham too are another side who have been well-backed over the past couple of days ahead of this match.

There's Only One Robbie Savage

A £1,500,000 Paul Jewell signing and a big money two-and-a-half year contract back in January 2008. Derby County were the laughing stock of the Premier League at the time and this signing seemed to sum them up.

Robbie Savage looked a yard too slow as he captained his new Derby side in a home 1-0 defeat to Wigan Athletic at Pride Park on his debut. Greeted with a mixture of cheers and boos, he was part of a dire Rams side that were relegated with a league low 11 points that season.

12 months on, Derby were lingering above the relegation zone of the Championship, Paul Jewell resigned, and Robbie Savage had been loaned out to League Two side Brighton and Hove Albion. People were saying his legs had gone. Some suggested his career was over. At 34, and from dropping from the Premier League to league one in less than 12 months, it wasn't a bad claim.

The former Wales captain was recalled to the first team at Derby when Nigel Clough took charge in January 2009. Savage quickly established himself into the team with his hard work and battling skills as he became a big part of the side that rose above the threat of relegation that looked likely under Jewell.

A few weeks into this season, Robbie Savage was re-named Derby County captain at the expense of the woeful Paul Connolly. He works his socks off in the middle of the park and is a great leader on the pitch. He's had the better of the Nottingham Forest, West Brom and Newcastle midfield in games this season.

Savage's personality has blossomed off the field. He occasionally co-commentates on BBC Radio Five games, often mention his and Derby's performance the day before. And he stuck up for his team, criticising the journalists in a must listen to interview on BBC Radio Derby recently. While it seems he wants a career as a personality in football once his playing time is over, his commitment to Derby County currently should not come under question.

Robbie Savage captained his Derby side to their second clean sheet over Newcastle this season with a 3-0 victory tonight at Pride Park. Derby are in form at the moment, having beat two of the top three teams at home in their last two games. Although I didn't back the Rams in either of those games, many pub-goers down my local will be buying me a pint for tonight's result...

Congratulations to the City of New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints done their city, state and country proud in winning the Superbowl for the first time in their history last night. What's more they overcame a 10 point deficit in a Superbowl and rattled Peyton Manning into mistakes in the final quarter.

Whether it was their destiny, or just their great coaching and teamwork that done it, the New Orleans Saints are deserved Superbowl Champions. Lead by their quarterback and the Superbowl MVP, Drew Brees finished the game with a co-Superbowl record of 32 competitions (from 39 pass attempts) for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dwight Freeney recorded the only sack of the contest but his pressure was few and far between as the Colts line didn't get to Brees as he found receiver after receiver from the second quarter onwards.

Peyton Manning meanwhile started the game brightly as the Indianapolis Colts scored 10 points on their opening two drives. The second being a 96 yard touchdown drive that was captivated by a 19 yard pass from Manning to Pierre Garcon, who had got beyond two of the Saints secondary.

I couldn't pick a winner before the game. My gut was saying the Saints. My head was saying the Colts. I was slightly favouring the Colts. And at 10-0 I was more than favouring the Colts! At this point, Drew Brees hadn't got in any rhythm and his opposite number had. But the Saints finished the half on top, holding the Colts to 15 yards in the second quarter and finishing with two field goals, despite being stopped on a 4th and goal inside the final 2 minutes.

Momentum was solely with New Orleans after they recovered a brave onside kick to start the second half. A succession of completed passes culminated in Drew Brees dumping off to Pierre Thomas, who broke through a couple of would-be tackles on his way to a 16 yard score. But the Colts would follow this up with what they do best. Peyton Manning, who hadn't attempted a pass since halfway through the second quarter and after a 30+ minute interval that saw the Who perform, came out and drove his team down the field as the Colts retook the lead, 17-13.

This was as good as the shootout everyone had been expecting would get. In fact, it was the last time Indianapolis scored as to most people's surprise, the Saints got the better of Peyton Manning in the final quarter of the game. Garrett Hartley narrowed their lead to 17-16 when he connected with his third field goal. Matt Stover would miss wide left from 51 yards on the ensuring drive for the Colts. Then the Saints drove down the short field and ended it with Drew Brees hooking up with Jeremy Shockey from 2 yards, and then to Lance Moore on the 2 point conversion (only successful after Sean Peyton challenged).

The Colts were down 7 with less than 6 minutes remaining. I was expecting Peyton Manning to do his usual thing and tie it up. He hooked up five times with Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne as they drove yo the Saints 31 comfortably. But the game winner came when Peyton Manning made a bad choice in attempting to find Reggie Wayne on a hook, only to be jumped by Tracy Porter who returned the ball 74 yards for a 31-17 lead that the Colts would not come back from.

The Indianapolis Colts only had 3 players of 20+ yards, one of which was a surprising 26 yard run from Joseph Addai. They played a very casual game on offence and I think they would have had some success if they had attacked the Saints deep more often. Prior to the interception, Manning was having a fine game, despite the Saints blitzes getting to him as he released the ball.

The Colts defence, whether tired or just lacking quality against the leagues number one offence could not get to Drew Brees, did little in the way of preventing his receivers making the grabs and did not force a turnover all game.

We have a 3rd series of the Brett Favre's retirement saga is set to start shortly. We also have the NFL draft to look forward too before another exciting season of gridiron action. I guess I should leave you with one final betting slip as it is becoming a regular in my NFL section! Here's to another great season of the NFL:

Review of Today's Premier League Bets

Manchester United have gone back on top of the Premier League this evening following their 5-0 victory over a hapless Portsmouth side.

Although it took a while to open the scoring, no one will have been surprised by the result at Old Trafford. Fortunately it was Wayne Rooney who opened the scoring, having tipped him in my Manchester United-Portsmouth preview. They also came through on the handicap that I tipped in that preview also. One I didn't mention, having seen it this morning was the few cheeky pounds on them to win both halves at evens. It could only be a small bet though with Manchester United's record of being level at half time in a number of games this season.


In other Premier League games, Stoke's victory over Blackburn was another good bet I had on this afternoon and I hope you took my advice in my preview for that game too.

As for Hull City beating Manchester City, I hope you laid them instead of putting them in a draw double (with Tottenham) as I did. As I wrote in my Manchester City preview, their odds weren't valuable and id the result was down to a slack performance that really won't surprise me.

West Ham were a big let down for me, but I guess everyone will point to Burnley's home record and tell me “it was obvious Burnley would win”. Oh well, it wasn't the biggest bet in the world.

Now to watch Tottenham-Aston Villa in what I expect to be a tight game and of few chances...

Chelsea Unconvincing on Their Travels This Season

The Premier League top another surprising twist last night as Chelsea dropped points at relegation-placed Hull City.

Steven Mouyokolo headed Hull City into the lead after half an hour. Remarkably, 15 of Chelsea's 20 goals this season have been conceded from set pieces (75%). The league average is 38.5%.

You could have been forgiven for thinking Chelsea would turn up the pressure and put a couple past Chelsea. After Hull scored Chelsea did finish the half on top. And Didier Drogba struck a free kick just before the half to take Chelsea in level at half time. Very similar circumstance to when these met on the opening day of the season.

Hull gave it their own and must have fancied their chances from set pieces again in the second half. They had chances too. Chelsea put in another lacklustre performance on the road and this time couldn't rely on a late John Terry header to pick up all 3 points. And this time they left me with a losing bet (Tottenham will do me proud tonight – couldn't ignore their odds even if it is the FA Cup – Harry Redknapp gets the business done in the cup).

Since a solid start to the season, Chelsea's away form is less than impressive. The Blues started the season with 3 straight away wins. All were impressive; at Sunderland, Fulham and Stoke City. That was ended abruptly with a 3-1 defeat at Wigan that saw the home side open with a goal from a corner and Petr Cech later sent off.

That was followed by a hardworking 1-0 win in Cyprus in the Champions League that was far from convincing. Their other two Champions League games weren't convincing either. First relying on Didier Drogba to earn a 2-2 draw at Atletico Madrid and rounding the group off with a 1-0 victory in Porto.

Chelsea have won just one of their last five league games on the road since thrashing Arsenal 3-0 at the Emirates. That was thanks to John Terry's late header at Burnley on Saturday. They were unfortunate to lose 2-1 at Manchester City, unconvincing in their 1-1 draw at West Ham. They drew 0-0 at an in-form Birmingham side who they would beat 3-0 at home a few weeks later. Tuesday nights draw at Hull was the latest of their travelling woes.

Chelsea are favourites by man to beat Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. The follows a trip to Goodison Park on a Wednesday night that they won't be as heavily-fancied in. After that, trips to Wolves, Portsmouth and Blackburn in the league is where they will need to sort out their away form and set piece defending. They also have a trip to Milan thrown in there to face Jose Mourinho's Inter in the Champions League!

Defending set pieces have been a big criticism of Chelsea. They have certainly been exposed from them. While away games are traditionally much tougher than at home for the obvious reasons, some of Chelsea's displays have let them down. Having said that, only Manchester United have picked up more points on their travels so far this season. But Chelsea are the odds-on favourites to win the Premier League. And their final three away games of the Premier League season are at Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and Anfield.

Interview with a Professional NFL Gambler

After our NFL Tipster put up some MVP-like figures during the regular season, I couldn't resist getting an interview with him for yours and my benefit.

Q: How did you get into betting on NFL for a living?
NFL Tipster: The same way every NFL fan did. We think we know it all, we want money. I had a good idea of betting before hand with other sports but the NFL is my niche. It's my favourite sport and from a betting point of view there's only two outcomes. Win or lose. There's no draws like you get in football and these are eliminated in the spread anywya.

Q: Do you bet on college American football too?
NFL Tipster: Actually I don't. Trying to be an expert in both would take twice as long and therefore I would only have half the knowledge of each. Stick to one league, the one you enjoy the most, read, watch and do whatever you have to do to maximise your knowledge in it and you'll have a good chance of making a living from it.

Q: How many years have you been betting on the NFL?
NFL Tipster: I started at the beginning of this millennium. It took a couple of seasons before it became serious and ultimately a lifestyle. But I've been a winner every season.

Q: Have you picked the correct Superbowl winner every season?
NFL Tipster: No. The Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots got away with me during the first few seasons, but I've been sound since. I invest more in individual matches, so picking the Superbowl winner early in the season or even at the start of the playoffs is more an egotistical thing or for bragging rights. Financially it's not as important, but it can be a hefty bonus.

Q: How many bets do you make on an average NFL weekend?
NFL Tipster: I only invest big in the matches I am very sure in. Some weekends that can be 0. Others 3 or 4. And those would be doubled together and less backed on them. I rarely go for the specials, but when there's something that sticks out (the line being set much lower or higher than I estimate it for player yardage for example) then I might have a cheeky bet on that, but nothing serious. Just something to quell my ego. I mainly stick to the spread, money line and point totals.

Q: What was your best weekend this season?
NFL Tipster: I've had a few weekends with 100% winning records. My best weekend was week 6. It started with Houston beating Cincinnati and New Orleans beating New York. Then New England crushed Tennessee in a late game in the snow. Perfect. Tennessee also made me happy on Christmas Day when they lost to San Diego, and I know you backed them that day too.

Q: What was your worst weekend this season?
NFL Tipster: New England at Indianapolis in week 10. I had the Colts to win by 3 points or more. They were fortunate to win that game at all, but I still lost my bet. Before that, Denver had lost to Washington. I won on Tennessee and Cincinnati that day but it wasn't enough to cover what was about to come in the late game.

Q: How risky would you say you are?
NFL Tipster: Gambling is all about risk. I just want to minimise my chances of losing. Don't we all? The more risk the more reward. I bet big on the odd match and leave the rest alone (or add a few to a big accumulator with a small stake and watch them only come in once every full moon).

Q: What do you need to be a successful gambler?
NFL Tipster: Knowledge, confidence, bottle and discipline. You must be able to take defeat and not try and make it back with another big bet on something you weren't planning on betting on. I know in the morning what bets I have in mind. Some drop off and in the odd circumstance, some get added (Tennessee over Arizona when Matt Leinart was named starter on gameday. Even then I was very fortunate Tennessee won with that 99 yard drive). Knowledge is an obvious one. So is confidence. Bottle comes down to how much you're prepared to bet. I don't like hearing any of this "I should have bet more". They're not professionals I assure you ;)

Q: Who is going to win the Superbowl this weekend?
NFL Tipster: The edge is with Indianapolis. This isn't one I will be betting on though. Partly because I already have money on both of these winning earlier this season. But mainly because I am not 99% sure they will win. If this was a regular season game I might not even add it to a long accumulator. Instead I will enjoy what should be a very enjoyable Superbowl once again.

Thank you to our NFL Betting Tipster for taking the time to answer some of my questions. He also kindly left me with his betting slips. Fortunately I have a copy of my own also, but not with as much staked!

John Terry Odds-On to Lose England Captaincy

Paddy Power have made John Terry odds-on to lose his England captaincy following the revelations of his private life over the weekend.

The English FA took their time to make an announcement, in which they made a good decision to leave it down to the manager, Fabio Capello.

Fabio Capello took 4 games and 5 players before deciding John Terry would be the captain of the England national team back in August 2008. Terry lead England to victory in a friendly over Germany at the end of that year, scoring the winner himself.

John Terry put all his troubles behind him at the weekend, the day after the news made the headlines as he scored an 82nd minute winner for at Burnley on Saturday. He will play at Hull tomorrow night too as he looks to take Chelsea 4 points clear at the top of the Premier League.

This was not the first time Terry or his family have put a negative image on the England captain. Incidents in clubs and parent arrests have been part of his past. And none of those had a negative effect on the field. Saturday's performance came as no surprise to me. Stripping him of his England captain 4 months before the World Cup was be a disruption that the English media would love. That means it would be a bad story for our national team. He's a true leader on the field and a very talented defender.

Transfer Deadline Roundup

Most January transfer windows do not see many major transfers. Put it down to mid-season, cup-tied players or the lack of money, it has been a quiet start to 2010.

Manchester City's capture of Adam Johnson is the biggest Premier League signing on this year's deadline day. Johnson has been Middlesbrough's top scorer this season, with 11 goals from the wing. I've seen him a couple of times in this division and I was always confident a Premier League side would sign him this month. He was too good for the Championship. With Robinho's departure there will be less competition on the left wing from him (Martin Petrov) as he looks to break into their first team. Talking about Robinho, he arrived at Santos today with Pele in front of a large crowd inside their stadium!

Stoke City completed the signing of highly-rated goalkeeper Asmir Begovic from Portsmouth for £3,500,000 today. 22-year old Bosnian Begovic kept 2 clean sheets in 8 starts for the Premier League's bottom club, had also been linked to Chelsea and Tottenham recently. Many expected him to leave today following Portsmouth's decision to start David James in goal at the weekend. Portsmouth sold Mike Williamson to Newcastle earlier this month and Younes Kaboul back to Tottenham at the weekend to help Pompey pay their wages.

Robbie Keane looks set to be loaned out to Celtic from Tottenham. Keane has not played 90 minutes for Tottenham since Ireland were eliminated from the World Cup in controversial circumstances to France in November. He never scored in the few appearances he has made since. 4 of his 6 goals this season came in one game against Burnley. This would be a good move for both Keane and Celtic. Tottenham captured Eidur Gudjohnsen a few days ago and already have Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch playing well in the first team. Robbie Keane should find the less competitive league a breeze and if Kris Boyd had left Rangers this month I would have backed Keane to finish top scorer in the Scottish Premier League! Celtic confirmed the loan signing of Diomansy Kamara from Fulham earlier today. Fulham have loaned in Nicky Shorey from Aston Villa and Stefano Okaka from Roma.

Sunderland missed out on Robbie Keane but completed the loan signing of Alan Hutton from Tottenham today. They have not yet confirmed the signing of Benjani from Manchester City as of yet, despite the transfer deadline having passed.

The deal of Victor Moses from Crystal Palace to Wigan was confirmed today, expected to be in the region of £2,500,000. A highly-rated youngster, he has scored some spectacular goals in the Championship over the past two and a half years. When I saw Moses in person last year, he was sent off a little harshly for a second yellow for a tackle from behind. His first yellow card was for a dive. He certainly has a chance to break into the first team immediately with Wigan as they currently offer little going forward. He may be battling directly with Scott Sinclair, their loanee from Chelsea who is a great dribbler but hasn't hit the heights in the Premier League so far. Jack Cork was loaned out from Chelsea to Burnley today.

Benni McCarthy completed his permanent move from Blackburn to West Ham today for an undisclosed fee. This is a good buy for West Ham who have struggled for goals up front, especially during Carlton Cole's time on the sideline. He scored 18 Premier League goals in his first season with Blackburn, but only scored once in 14 games this season. With a World Cup in his back garden this summer I was expecting better from him this season and with a new club with some creative midfielders I can see him doing well at Upton Park. I do question the loan deal of Mido from Middlesbrough though to West Ham. A lazy striker who was a poison for Middlesbrough when they were relegated last season. The Hammers have also confirmed the signing of Brazilian free agent Ilan. Gianfranco Zola has certainly shown his intent of bringing in strikers today!

Neither Arsenal, Birmingham or Liverpool's managers spent any money today after entering the transfer window having been linked to a number of players. Arsenal loaned out Jack Wilshere to Bolton and Philippe Senderos last week. Birmingham loaned out Marcus Bent to Queens Park Rangers today. They signed Craig Gardner from Aston Villa and Michel from Sporting Gijon last month. Liverpool signed Maxi Rodriguez in January. Ryan Babel remains with the Reds.

Stephen Hunt, who scored a penalty against Wolves at the weekend remains at Hull despite numerous bids this month up to the final day from the West Midlands club. Neither Hull or Wolves made any panic buys today.